7/11 LCS Betting Breakdown

C9 vs. TSM is one of those rare rivalries in esports where there might be legitimate disdain for one another. Despite a long shared history in NA LCS where players switch teams often, these two teams have never really shared or traded players (save for Wildturtle, contentiously). C9’s owner, Jack, has taken righteous glee in the face of all of TSM’s organization instability. Doublelift and Zven have taken turns firing shots at one another over the years claiming their opposition to be overrated. C9 employs multiple people who have made their distaste for TSM a part of their brand. I am excited as a viewer every time these two play. I’m excited as a bettor today too because I think there’s money to be made.

Golden Guardians +5.5 Kills vs. EG (-110) 1u

Golden Guardians are a little underrated at the moment. They’re not bottom of the table fodder like their record suggests. I would expect this team to make a late push for the playoffs with a solid identity led by their Mid-Jungle duo. That identity is to smash early games. They have the second best early game rating in the league behind C9. That stat is pretty unheard of for a team at the bottom of the standings, which leads us to believe there is some positive regression coming for GGS. When they lose though, it’s because of their inability to transition leads into solid late game teamfights and shotcalling. If that’s the case here, I like EG to win in a close one late. Take GGS to cover.

TSM ML (+300) vs. C9

This play is as square as a ham and cheese sandwich. I still think it’s right. +300 implies that TSM only win this 25% of the time. I have them a tick higher than that. Despite some weird losses and mid-game shotcalling, TSM has been really good this season. The team that beats C9 has to punish them for drafting early game, every single time out. Isn’t TSM with Bjergsen and Doublelift, two notorious stall the game out players, the team to do it? Do we really believe Nisqy and Licorice get out to their usual leads 75% of the time against TSM? I don’t. The one sticking point here is TSM’s weak point happens to be C9’s strong point. I am, of course, talking about the jungle matchup of Spica and Blaber. Spica has been better than I ever expected and holds positive numbers in both XP and Gold differential at 10 minutes. If Spica can hold on, I think we might just see an upset special here.

Team Liquid vs. CLG Under 21.5 (-115) 1u

Team Liquid is averaging 0.56 Combined Kills per minute, the lowest number in the league. Their wins against bad teams in particular have been very low scoring. They jump out on bad teams early with kills andslowly choke them out through solid macro play. I expect them to handle CLG with relative ease. CLG has the second worst early game in the league and is being overrated by some fortunate wins.  I would not be surprised to see this one end in something like a 10-1 TL win.

Team Liquid-Flyquest-Evil Geniuses ML Parlay (+135) 1u

Full disclosure, I locked this in earlier this week and like it less now. I think EG has a real chance to lose to GGS. However, if EG gets through the early game close to even then I love them to beat the Guardians in the late game. The other two I feel pretty strongly about. I already made the case for Liquid in the under. Flyquest is coming off a bad loss and rarely loses two in a row. I expect them to bounce back here against a significantly inferior Dignitas team. 

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