June has been rough for my LoL betting. There’s a few things I definitely had a bad read on and ideas I am ready to move on from. There were some bad beats too. There was also too much risk involved in week 1 games with new rosters. I will be straight up, I don’t understand the game at a high enough level to handicap with little to no statistical evidence. I’m not certain anyone does. Now, with a look at every team last weekend and a lot of mistakes made, I think we’ve got some pretty good ideas about how to attack the lines going forward.
Estar ML vs. LNG (-155) 2u, Estar -1.5 Games (+210) 1u
If this game was in the spring split, it would have been Estar -300. I genuinely believe that. Getting them at half of that implied odds is insane value here. LNG has beaten two very good teams to start the season in RNG and FPX. FPX was maybe 20% of themselves in that series however, and the RNG series had a slightly flukey feel as well. LNG also lost to Suning (who look wholly average at this point), that seems more like their level. Estar has been very similar to last year: conservative, solid League of Legends. They’ve failed to close out a couple series they probably should have won. When team’s lose close and win big, I like them for big upcoming value.
Fun Plus Phoenix ML vs. WE (-215) 2u, -1.5 Games (+145) 1u
I’m ready to admit I was wrong about Team WE. They are a good team. They will be solidly in the playoffs. This is just a bad matchup for them. They basically play like FPX lite: pick something for their mid laner to push waves in and then gank other lanes. Both teams try to win at every stage of the game with team play. Fun Plus Phoenix and Doinb are just better at that style than WE. WE despite being 3-1 only sport a 1.15 K:D ratio, meaning they’re winning some close ones. Regression to the mean time for both these teams.
DragonX ML vs. Gen. G (-130) 1u, DragonX -1.5 Games (+215) 0.5u
Dragonx looks finally ready to enter the “best team in the world” conversation. Their series against T1 looked more like a championship finals, than a week 1 best of 3. You could see multiple times in that series that Pyosik and Chovy put the team on their back and refused to lose. Particularly in game 3 when Chovy played his way out of 2 or 3 situations where an average mid laner dies 85% of the time. DragonX was the statistically superior team in the spring split and will have a bad taste in their mouth after losing twice to Gen.G at the Mid-Season Cup. Those two games gave us a little bit of pause here though, hence the smaller sizing.
G2-Origen-FNC ML Parlay (+115) 1u
G2 is coming off their worst weekend in recent memory with a get-right game with what looks like the worst team in the league. They stated in multiple interviews that they did not take prep for last week seriously. I don’t see them doing that again, so they ain’t losing. Origen is playing Excel who is another candidate for worst team in the league. Mid Laner, Special, has not looked like he belongs in the LEC so far. It will not get any easier this week against Nukeduck. I will be looking at the Origen kill spread as well if it’s under 9ish. More on Fnatic below.
Fnatic ML vs. Mad Lions (-220) 1u
A lot of juice for one game, I know. Fnatic is just a match up nightmare for Mad Lions. Mad Lions have punched up and down by out thinking and out drafting their opponents multiple times. There’s no doing that against FNC. Their champion pools and flexibility are unmatched in the league. If Mad Lions are going to win, it’s through the bot lane. FNC is capable of winning through every lane and letting bot play weak side. In fact, it has at times been Rekkles’ strong suit. Mad Lions, also, tend to get a bit overrated because of their extremely fun playstyle. They are a blast to watch, but when you dig deep in their numbers, they often appear to be a middle of the table playoff team.
Golden Guardians ML vs. CLG (-155) 2u
I have a feeling this number is going to look ridiculous in a week or two. CLG is terrible. They only won against Immortals because they just have no idea what to do with a lead. Any competent team would have beaten CLG last weekend. Golden Guardians are not terrible. In fact, I would lock them into make playoffs at any kind of plus money. With Closer and Damonte, they have an early game centric, aggressive identity. After 2 games, they are the second best team in Early Game Rating on oracleselixir.com. CLG rank dead last in that metric. I would look for favorable numbers on First Blood and First Drake for GGS too. I’m pretty confident in a stomp here.
TSM- GGS ML Parlay (+121) 1u
I already made the case for GGS. So here it is for TSM: it is impossible to name one spot,lane, metric where Immmortals have an advantage over TSM. You might think jungle, but if Potluck plays again, I think, at best, it’s even for Immortals there. I legitimately believe this team could go 2-16, 1-17, or 0-18. Another spot to look for a 8ish kill line.