8/14 LoL Betting Breakdown

V5 is legit. There were multiple moments in that series in which you would think “Uh oh. This is where the veterans of FPX out shotcall the kids of V5”, but then V5 outplayed them every time. It’s not like this was particularly bad or off-meta play from FPX. They tried to play their game and just got straight up beat. With that said, take a look at the line for V5 vs. Suning. Get in on that now. The less said about the TSM series, the better. I’ll take a look at the academy lines again tomorrow and probably release something on Twitter for that too, but let’s get into the playoff matchups. 

LGD vs. Team World Elite

  • Top-  Langx vs. Morgan      Advantage: LGD
  • Mid-Teacherma vs. xiye     Advantage: LGD
  • Jungle- Beishang vs. Peanut  Advantage: Even
  • Bot Duo- Killua and Kramer vs. Missing and Jiumeng  Advantage: WE

As you can see, I like the talent of LGD better than WE. I like the talent of a lot of teams more than WE, but that doesn’t change the fact that this team just keeps winning. They especially beat teams like LGD who will beat themselves. Their “try to survive and make it to teamfights” style can be difficult for teams like LGD who are known to throw a game or two late. In the stats, these two are pretty close to a coinflip. LGD has a +1% GSPD where WE has an even 0%. LGD has the edge in the early game with a 53.3 rating over WE’s 48.3, but when it goes late WE has the edge with a 6.7 MLR over LGD’s 3.5. Both teams take around 55% of Barons in their games. There’s no significant edges in this one. So I’m going to take the dogs, WE. I think this should be a lot closer to an esports odds coinflip of -115. +135 is just way too much plus money for either team to get in this series.

The Picks: WE ML (+135) 1.5u, WE -1.5 Maps (+275) 1u

Flyquest vs. Evil Geniuses

  • Top- Solo vs. Huni   Advantage: FLY
  • Mid- Powerofevil vs. GoldenGlue Advantage: FLY
  • Jungle- Santorin vs. Svenskeren Advantage: FLY
  • Bot Duo- Wildturtle and Ignar vs. Bang and Zeyzal Advantage: Even

This one’s a lot more clear cut to me than the series in the LPL. Flyquest has the talent edge in every single lane besides bot where I rated them even. Bang is a better player than Wildturtle, but Ignar is a better player than Zeyzal, couple that with the fact that Flyquest’s bot lane has actual synergy and is usually on the same page, we’ll call it a wash. Regardless, Evil Geniuses has shown no desire to win through the bot side this split and that would be a pretty big shake up to their playstyle to make in one week, so I’m not sure the game will even be won on that side of the map in this one. 

Flyquest’s true strength is in their team play. They always understand their compositions, know what they want to do next, and show trust in their teammates to perform in their roles. That is Evil Geniuses downfall. If EG do not get serious advantages in the laning phase, they almost always completely fall apart in the team stages. I’ve broken it down a million times before, but this team is just not on the same page. That’s the kind of team Flyquest feasts on. If we go into my favored statistical indicators as well, Fly is also just miles ahead. Their GSPD is +3.3% compared to Evil Geniuses’ 0.8% ( a number that has gotten much worse since their roster swaps). Their EGR is 51.6 and EG’s is 48.3. Finally and most importantly, they control 68% of the Barons in their games where EG averages a putrid 33%. I think we’re headed for another  sweep in the LCS.

The Picks:  Flyquest ML (-245) 2u, Flyquest -1.5 (-110) 1.5u, Flyquest -2.5 (+273) 1u

DRX -1.5 vs. HLE and KT -1.5 vs. SHO Parlay (Even) 1u

HLE and Seol Hae One are historically bad teams in the LCK, I will be betting them to get swept the rest of the way.

TSM vs. Golden Guardians Betting Breakdown

Before we get into the breakdown, I wanted to point out this resource from James McCool for anyone who may be new to betting on LoL. James provides deeper insight into how the game is played, bet types, and strategy that I’ll be using in this article to break down this specific series.

The LCS will kick off its summer split playoffs on August 13th with a matchup of the league’s defining franchise–TSM– and one of its perpetual underdogs, Golden Guardians. If you’re unfamiliar with the LCS’ playoff format check it out here.  The odds and a quick look at the LCS standings would suggest that Golden Guardians are a massive underdog again. I’m not so sure about that. Let’s look at each lane matchup and then some key team stats to see if there might be value in fading the Yankees of the LCS, TSM. 

Top Lane-  TSM BrokenBlade vs. Golden Guardians Hauntzer

This lane matchup really comes down to what you prefer your top lane to do. Do you prefer a top laner who wants to play carry champions and get ahead of the enemy laner, but could lose the game entirely by himself as well? BrokenBlade’s your guy. If you prefer a traditional go even in lane and effectively tank team fights top laner, then you want Hauntzer. Their stats bare this out too. Hauntzer gets advantages in gold, CS, and experience at 10 minutes against his opponents. BrokenBlade only averages a positive number in gold for those metrics. However, when it comes to getting the first kill on their opponents, BrokenBlade stands alone in the LCS. His first blood percentage of 44% is the highest in the league. Although a lot of the attention in TSM games goes to what stars Doublelift and Bjergsen are doing, TSM games are often determined by what BrokenBlade does. If he’s comfortable and playing well, TSM is tough to beat. Hauntzer, on the other hand, is the steady hand of Golden Guardians. He’s never going to put the team on his back, but he’s also never going to drag them all the way down. This will be a key matchup to watch, if BrokenBlade is consistently getting kills in the laning phase, Golden Guardians will be in trouble, but if Hauntzer is comfortably farming and playing weak side, they have to like their chances. 

The Edge: Even

Jungle- TSM Spica vs. Golden Guardians Closer

If Golden Guardians are going to pull off the upset, it’s going to be through the play of Jungler, Closer. Closer is the kind of resource-heavy, dominant jungler usually associated with the LPL or the LEC. He is averaging an experience differential of 317 and a CS differential of 7.8 at 10 minutes over his rival junglers. Those numbers are only topped by the LCS’ other dominant jungler and spring split MVP– Cloud 9’s Blaber. That’s rarified air for Closer. His opponent, Spica, could not be more opposite. Spica is easily TSM’s weakest link  and averages the worst experience and CS differentials of any jungler in the LCS. To be fair to him, those numbers are partially due to the way TSM uses him as more like a second support player to their carry laners, but still the chasm between the junglers in those key statistics will be worrisome to TSM fans. If they win, Golden Guardians will find themselves typing “jungle difference” in /all chat at the end of this series. 

The Edge: Golden Guardians

Mid Lane- TSM Bjergsen vs. Golden Guardians Damonte

In some ways, the statistics of this matchup are irrelevant. If you ask even the most casual LCS fan: Who is the one player you want on your side in a must-win, backs against the wall 5 game playoff series? They will almost always answer Bjergsen. Since joining the league, he has easily been its most dominant and important mid laner and has shown no signs of slowing down this split.  He is still consistently getting ahead of the enemy mid laner, despite having arguably the worst jungler in the league to back him up.  His KDA (Kills-Deaths-Assists ratio)  of 6.5 is particularly impressive for a player on a team with multiple other carries like Doublelift and BrokenBlade. His opponent, Damonte, is a similar coin-flip type of player to BrokenBlade. In the games where he’s on, Damonte is really on. In the games where he’s off, Damonte is really off.  Damonte struggles to consistently get ahead of his opponents in the key categories of gold, experience, and cs where he averages deficits at 10 minutes. This lane matchup is very similar to the top in that one side has their solid, steady hand and the other has their wild card. I trust the steady hand of Bjergsen here.

The Edge: TSM

Bot Lane Duo- TSM Doublelift and Treatz vs. Golden Guardians FBI and Huhi

This matchup is a lot closer than a lot of folks think. FBI and Huhi have become a legitimate win condition for Golden Guardians this split. In fact, just going from raw statistics, you would give the edge to the GGS bot lane who are getting a +207 Gold differential at 10 minutes, a +52 XP differential, and a +7.7 CS differential onto FBI compared to TSM’s -67, +113, and +4.3 respectively on Doublelift. Games are not just played in the numbers though, as badly as sports bettors may want them to be. Doublelift’s history as a player who turns it up in the playoffs can not be ignored. When he wants to be, he is the greatest laner the LCS has ever seen. He used to routinely get the kind of advantages in lane that could snowball a game out of control. The meta-game has shifted his way just in time for playoffs as well. Two of his best champions, Caitlyn and Lucian, will be making their returns to pro play after long hiatuses in these playoffs. If Doublelift still has that player in him, you have to believe TSM has the slight edge here.

The Edge: Slight TSM

Team Stats

When I’m handicapping a LoL match after thinking through the lane-to-lane matchups, I want to know about three key statistics for a team: their gold spent percentage differential (GSPD), early game rating (EGR), and their Baron Percentage. 

The first and most important statistic here is the GSPD. GSPD measures how much team’s are beating or losing to their opponents by, think of it as the real plus minus or DVOA of LoL. GGS has a GSPD of 1.8% and TSM has a GSPD of 1.5%. That’s essentially a wash and could be heavily affected by one game. I think it’s worth noting that Golden Guardians have the better number there, but we’ll have to look elsewhere to see some real edges.

The next statistic–EGR– measures how much a team gets ahead on the early objectives of the game such as first kill, first drake, first tower, etc. Here we have a real mismatch with Golden Guardians on a 64.2 EGR compared to TSM’s 50.9. This difference largely comes to the aforementioned talent gap with the junglers. Closer and Golden Guardians like to go for early ganks and jungle invades with team compositions that are heavily favored in the early game. Spica and TSM see early game as a “survive and advance” stage of the game, often trying to go even in the early game and win in teamfights with late game focused team compositions. Golden Guardians will need to get meaningful leads in the early game to pull an upset here.

Finally and– for this matchup– most importantly, is the Baron percentage. If one thing has been consistent through the history of LoL, it’s that winning teams control the Baron buff. Forcing your opponent to fight at the Baron when you know you can win the fight remains one of the best ways to win a LoL match. Golden Guardians, despite getting out to the early game leads, only manages to get 48% of the Baron buffs in their games. This points to a clear disconnect for the team when it comes to transitioning early leads into wins. A quick study of the film on their games confirms this point. Their inexperience often shows in late game situations where you have to out-think, not just outplay your opponents. TSM controls 61% of the barons in their games. While not a particularly impressive number, it is where I think this series will be won for TSM. They just have significantly more experience at winning in late game situations. I like Golden Guardians to get far enough ahead in the early game to win at least one game in this Best of 5, but TSM’s control of the Baron will help them avoid the upset.

The Edge: TSM

The Picks

Over 3.5 Maps (-215) 2u

Like previously mentioned, I like Golden Guardians to get at least one game here. The biggest positional mismatch in this game is actually on their side. Closer is miles ahead of Spica. When he gets on to one of his favored champions and gets an early kill, I think he can carry GGS to a win or two. To get onto favored champions, Golden Guardians will want to be on the blue side of the map where they are 6-1 this split. They are actually the team with the biggest difference in record from when they are the blue side compared to when they are on the red side, which brings us to the next pick.

Golden Guardians Money Line on Map 2 (+150) 1u

TSM is the higher seed here which means they will have side selection in the first game of the series. I expect them to pick blue side where they are 7-3 this split. If they win game 1–which they will be heavily favored to do on blue side– then side selection for game 2 will go to Golden Guardians. With their blue side record, I think this is where Golden Guardians steals a game. It is also historically the most likely game for the underdog to win in a 5 game series.

Exact Result: TSM 3-1 (+260) 1u, TSM 3-2 (+370) 1u

I like two small plays on the exact results here knowing you’re guaranteed to lose one. These are the two most likely results to me and we have nice plus odds for both. There’s a world where Golden Guardians come out with their late game issues solved and pull off the full upset, but I think the more likely outcome is that they stick to what they do best by getting early game leads and steal a game or two while TSM out executes them late in the others to win the series.   

Victory 5 vs. Fun Plus Phoenix Breakdown

Welcome to the LPL playoffs baby! I think if you had told me before the split that Victory Five and Fun Plus Phoenix would be playing a playoff series and I would favor V5, I probably would have stopped gambling forever. Seriously, what an insane turnaround by this team. It’s not flukey either. They have beat multiple good teams that were playing their favored style, unlike E-star last split. I believe in Victory Five here, let’s break down why and how I’m going to bet on them by going through the lanes and then the team stats. 

Top Lane- V5 BiuBiu vs. FPX Gimgoon or Khan

I expect Fun Plus to play Gimgoon in at least the first two matches of this one, so we’re going to focus on how he matches up with BiuBiu. GimGoon actually has the top win rate of any of the players here at 69%, so some might think with him FPX is significantly improved. I’m not so sure. If you dive a little bit deeper, you see that GimGoon got to play in both the games against OMG and Dominus which were near auto-wins at that stage of the season. His win rate has more to do with the size of sample and strength of competition than any truly dominant play by him. The stats show this too.  GimGoon averages a -303 GD@10, a -147 XPD@10 and a -5.9 CSD@10 this season (and that includes the cupcake matchups previously discussed). That’s a pretty awful set of stats. For comparison, CLG’s Ruin, largely considered the worst Top laner in the LCS, averages -77, -50, and +1.9 differentials.  Top lane isn’t exclusively about the early advantages a player can get, but those are some serious deficits to put yourself into. V5’s BiuBiu, while never the standout star, averages solid advantages in those numbers with +85 GD10, +55XPD10, 0.6 CSD10. I don’t expect either of these teams to win the game through the top lane, but FPX could lose it there. I’m giving the edge to V5.

The Edge: V5

Jungle- FPX Tian vs. V5 WeiWei

I believe Tian is still one of the best junglers in the world, but the meta-game has shifted so far away from FPX’s preferred style of play that he does not look it anymore. I think that has more to do with the decline of the players around him, than any falling off from him. He still gets ahead in XP and CS over his opponents, but because him and Doinb can no longer team up for their signature dive his gold numbers have really suffered. With that said, WeiWei is just a better jungler right now. His +172 GD10, +271 XPD10 and +3.7 CSD10 are just absurd.  Perhaps even more impressive is his KDA of 5.9 and Kill Participation of 75.2%. WeiWei’s ability to set up objectives ahead of his opponents fits in perfectly with the current meta-game. 

The Edge: V5

Mid Lane- FPX Doinb vs. V5 Mole

Measuring Doinb by the traditional 10 minutes statistics has never really told the story of his worth. He is a unique laner whose true value lies outside of his lane. He will sacrifice cs, xp, and gold in his own lane to try and help his teammates get kills.  He has remained uniquely dominant in that way this split with a near 80% kill participation, the highest mark in the league. The question is: Is this the best way to play LoL anymore?  The answer seems almost definitely to be no. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the two teams best known for the mid lane ganker, Cloud9 and FPX, are struggling in the current meta-game. Playing with a more traditional control mage and a play-making support has become the optimal way to play, but FPX is holding onto the dream that their preferred style of play will come back. Doinb is still great at his role, but his role may just be irrelevant. His opponent, Mole, is a steady player who has had a few surprise pop-offs this split.  His role on V5 is to simply not lose too hard until the team can get into team fights where he excels. He averages small deficits in all the 10 minute statistics, but nothing so egregious that he becomes useless. Still, if given the choice between the player who tries not to lose his team the game and the player who tries to win, I’ll take the winner.

The Edge: FPX

Bot Lane Duo- FPX LWX and Crisp vs. V5 ppgod and Samd or y4

Weirdly, I don’t put much stock into the actual lane matchup here. LWX and Crisp are getting minimal leads on their opponents in lane and ppgod and Samd are averaging minor deficits. There’s a world where FPX gets a big enough lead through their bot side i to snowball the game, but largely I expect this to be farm and wait for team fights kind of lane. It’s there where I would give an edge to V5. Ppgod has been very good on engage-style supports this split and has stood out as a real playmaker. Crisp has done the exact opposite. He has had some real “WTF” moments this split that has had some people questioning if he’s even good enough anymore.

The Edge: Even 

Team Stats

 When you get into the team stats, it becomes clear that V5 is a team that understands how the game is played right now and FPX does not. First, V5’s GSPD of 2.9% is a respectable number that cements them as a legitimate contender, unlike the pretender numbers of E-star last split. FPX has a GSPD of -2.0%. That is one of the worst numbers of any team in playoffs across regions. It emphasizes what the film on FPX says: this team is winning narrowly and getting shit-stomped in their losses. That usually suggests some regression is coming in the playoffs. Some of the other teams that average near a -2.0% GSPD in the LPL are BilliBilli and OMG, who won 17 and 15 games compared to FPX’s 22. I think FPX is lucky to be in the playoffs.

If you look at Early Game Rating, V5 is again solidly ahead with a 58.6 compared to FPX’s 46.2. A lot of this accounted for in their first tower percentages where V5 is getting 56% of the First Towers and FPX is averaging a terrible 37%.   When teams can get the first tower, they set up vision on their opponents side of the map and usually have the advantage at the next objectives on that side of the map. The fact that FPX is getting so few of those in such an objective-heavy meta-game does not bode well for them.

Finally, FPX is just not getting enough Barons this split. I would have to dive deep into film to figure out why this is. I think part of it is that they’re often very behind at this stage of the game in this split. Either way their Baron Rate of 43% just ain’t gonna cut it against V5. V5 actually leads the league in Baron% at 65%. For such a dominant early game team that number really stands out.

The Edge: V5

The Picks

Victory Five +1.5 Games (-190) 3u

This is my largest position of the split. I am just trusting my process here. If you like FPX, you have to believe they have some other style or level  to go to in the playoffs that they have not shown at all this split. There’s no other justification for betting them besides experience. I’m trusting the numbers over experience this time.

Victory Five ML (+115) 2u

See above. There’s no way FPX should be favored here. I have V5 winning this near 65% of the time, +115 implies 46.5%.

V5 3-0 (+625) 0.5u, V5 3-1 (+425) 0.5u

4 and 3 game serieses are just more likely even in close ones like this, so if you like the dogs, get a little taste of these as well.

8/8 LoL betting breakdown

The LEC has officially lost its damn mind. This is the most parity I’ve seen in any league in a long time. They do not have a single dumpster fire team. It has been terrible to gamble on, but pretty awesome to watch. A lot of folks think the parity is showing the weakness of their top teams, my thinking is the exact opposite. Every team in the LEC knows how to win games when given the opportunity, that’s not something you can say about the other leagues. Have we seen Fnatic and G2 anywhere near their full strength yet? Definitely not, but I think the teams rising up from below them deserve some credit. Except Misfits, that team’s terrible. 


LNG ML vs. Dominus (-210) 1.5u,  LNG -1.5 (+145) 1u

LNG looked like a team playing for their jobs against LGD earlier this week. They actually tried to get on the front foot a couple times after some depressing serieses this split where they let their opponents do whatever they wanted. Xx and Flandre, in particular, looked eager to show they still belong in the LPL. With all that said, I think I would still like LNG if they lost. Incredibly, they dominate Dominus statistically. Their objective rates, GSPD, and GPR all have a meaningful gap with Dominus, despite them being easily the second worst team this split. That should tell you how bad Dominus is. I like LNG to get it done with jobs on the line.

 E-Star +1.5 Games vs. EDG (-165) 1.5u, E-star ML (+190) 1u

I couldn’t pass on one more opportunity to lose all my money on E-star. There’s a reason for this though: E-STAR HAS THE STATISTICS OF A PLAYOFF TEAM. I will die on this hill.  They have: the same GSPD as WE, the same Early Game Rating as JDG, and the same GD@15 and Dragon Rate as Suning. How do they keep losing? 

EDG, for their part, is also a good stats, bad record team who threw some big leads this split. This bet has more to do with my belief in some sort of positive regression coming for E-star, than a fade of EDG.

LPL/LCK Parlay

Damwon Gaming -1.5 Games vs. Seol Hae One,  DRX ML vs. Sandbox, Top Esports ML vs. WE (-140) 1u

I’m not going to insult anyone’s intelligence by talking through why DWG is going to 2-0 Seol Hae One. DRX is also in a huge mismatch here. It’s another one of those games where if you lined up the 10 players for a playground pickup game, every DRX player would be picked before Sandbox had one picked. So, that brings us to Top against WE.

Top still has the first seed in play here so I expect them to be fully motivated. When they are fully motivated, they should smash WE. WE’s try-to-survive and late game team fight style works against bad teams with laners who don’t get regularly ahead. That’s not TOP. Top has some of the best laners in LoL backed by a very aggressive jungler in Karsa. I expect TOP to smash this matchup, but have got burned on my expectations in the LPL this month so I did not play the -1.5.


SK ML vs. Origen (-110) 2u

Origen has completely forgotten how to win games. The Origen of old wins their game today, 99 times out of 100. They had solid teamfighting tools. They had a Gold lead at 15. They were first to multiple objectives. It was a classic Origen win, but then they lost. It was as if they completely froze with the lead. Their decisiveness went completely out the window and Nukeduck had a couple of headscratchers. This team looks done. I would expect some pretty big changes for them in the offseason.

SK remains a good team with good stats. They played a competitive game with G2 today that could have gone either way. I honestly could not believe they were the underdog here.

Mad Lions ML vs. Rogue (-130) 2u

Rogue is a bit of a pretender. They are very good at their style of LOL, but kind of collapse when their opponent’s don’t let them dictate the pace of a game. Mad Lions has never let their opponents dictate the pace of a game in their history. MAD will go down fighting in every situation. They are basically the anti-Rogue.

In games where Larssen can’t get massively ahead, Rogue has struggled this split. I would not count on him getting ahead of Humanoid, who has an 8.6 CSD@10 and 218 XPD@10. Rogue doesn’t have a lot of other win conditions. I expect Mad to know this and to target Larssen heavily in this match.


Liquid vs. Immortals Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u

Liquid gets first blood at 6 minutes. Liquid gets first drake at 8 minutes. Liquid gets first baron at 20 minutes. Liquid wins game 10-2 at 26 minutes. This is the script of every TL game against bad teams. I don’t expect the writers to be changing it up this week.

Golden Guardians ML vs. Evil Geniuses (-140) 1u, GGS vs. EG Over 21.5 (-115) 1u

The guys over at The Gold Card Podcast graciously featured this pick on their new “Listener Pick of the Week” segment and if you read my blog, but don’t follow them and listen to their podcast what are you doing? 

My reasoning here is simple: Evil Geniuses are cooked. They play more like a solo queue team with every member having a different opinion on what they should do. Their first dragon fight in their game against FLY last week was one of the worst managed things I’ve seen in pro LoL. Everybody on this team needs a retirement or a fresh start elsewhere because this ain’t it. They are comically bad for how good they look on paper. Golden Guardians played a closer than it looked game with a very good TSM team tonight and I came away even more impressed with them. They will easily be able to take advantage of EG’s miscommunications.

I like the over here because EG is giving up insane totals in their losses. Their deaths per loss is at 18 this split. That’s more like an LPL team. The totals in their losses average 28. 21.5 should be an easy over.

8/7 LEC and LCS Breakdown

I can not wait to be all over Damwon Gaming on the Worlds futures markets. Every person who pays attention to these things is talking about it and the guys over at The Gold Card Podcast  talked extensively about it, but this team is a true statistical outlier. Not like a 2020 statistical outlier, like the most singularly dominant team in LoL history kind of statistical outlier. I mentioned in my LCK breakdown that I thought they weren’t quite that good. I’m not so sure anymore. Canyon is becoming the kind of dominant player who defines seasons. 2018, it was TheShy, 2019, it was Doinb, I think 2020 is Canyon’s year. His Karthus is so good it should be illegal. 

On the other side, RNG just took a dump on what should have been a very profitable day. I will not miss that team come playoff time. They probably did me a favor by getting themselves eliminated so I can’t bet on them. On to the LEC and LCS..


Vitality vs. Rogue Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u, Rogue ML in a parlay

Rogue doesn’t lose to teams like Vitality. In fact, the only teams Rogue has lost to that are below them in the standings this season are G2 and SK–two teams that often play early game focused compositions and put pressure on Rogue’s excellent laners. That’s not Vitality’s game. They’re more like a diet Rogue type of team, who take what their opponents give them and can finish games when given leads. Rogue is way better than them at that particular style. 

I expect Rogue to stomp here. Rogue stomps are some of the lowest kill totals in the league. In their games against bottom 4 teams, only 1 has gone over 20 kills in a weird outlier against Schalke where they got a little behind in the early game. 

Origen vs. XL Over 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u

There’s a chance that both of these teams play tight because they desperately need it for playoffs. I’m leaning the other way. I think both teams will be eager to show they belong in the playoffs and can play a different style from what they’ve shown. It is also as close as a match can get statistically. I like overs in close matches. Close matches tend to trade kill for kill and I could see that happening here. Neither of these teams has been particularly efficient with leads making up the 7th and 8th spot in the league in Mid-to-late rating. If you have game time spreads at your book, I’d go over there too.

Fnatic ML vs. Schalke 04 (-190) 2u

Gillius was great last week. We’ve seen this before. His playstyle can still catch teams off-guard. It won’t catch the vets of FNC off-guard. This is just a don’t overthink it spot. In any other season, Fnatic would be a -300 favorite against this Schalke team. They are better all over the map. Even in the midst of this rough season, Fnatic still has one of the best Early Game Ratings in the LEC at 50.3. In their two upsets last weekend, Schalke was able to win through Gilius’ aggressive early game jungling, he shouldn’t be able to do that here. I still believe in Fnatic. They need this win.

Mad Lions- Rogue ML Parlay (-110) 1u

I already talked about the Rogue stomp, so let’s take a look at the Mad Lions- Misfits matchup. I do think Mad Lions have been a little overrated all season. Their style is kind of custom-made for Best of 1s where they can surprise their opponents with quicker reads on the meta and weird picks. But Misfits suck. They are the worst GSPD team in the LEC. Their laners have been falling behind regularly this split with negative CS differentials and Gold differentials. DanDan still doesn’t really look like an LEC-quality player, Febiven might not be good anymore, and Razork has been a total coinflip. MAD Lions should be able to get right pretty easily here.


Dignitas vs. Cloud 9 Over 21.5 (-115) 1u

Cloud 9 needs to kick someone’s ass. It feels like it’s been forever since we’ve seen that. They used to get unbelievably ahead in lanes and then use those leads to kill their opponents repeatedly on their side of the maps. Dignitas need to show they can still do something. The past few games against top teams, they have just slowly conceded into their base. I don’t think Dardoch can be happy with that. I expect Dignitas to draft a full early game composition in this one and keep it close early on and then get smashed later on. That was near the exact script of their first game with C9 that had 31 kills. Give me the over.

8/6 and 8/7 LPL and LCK betting breakdown

We’re having a winning week so far thanks to a big Sunday in the LCS. The LPL regular season remains a total mystery to me. RNG who had looked done for weeks decided to play their best LoL of the split on Sunday morning, EDG is suddenly a good team, and OMG with Eric look like a possible playoff team next year. Of course, all of this will probably change tomorrow because that’s how the LPL works. Regardless, I love betting it and have a few spots I like for the next two nights.



V5 -1.5 Games vs. Rogue Warriors (-115) 1u

I think Rogue Warriors is as bad as Dominus, they have just won a couple of coin-flips that Dominus lost this split. The stats agree with me. Rogue Warriors is second-to-last in the LPL in GSPD, GPR, and Early Game Rating at oracleselixir.com with not much room between them and Dominus. I believe if Dominus was playing V5 this line would be more like -180. Victory Five, despite a stumble against a motivated and talented EDG team, has not really messed around against bad teams this split. They have 2-0’d Vici, Estar, LNG, and Dominus already and I expect them to do the same against Rogue Warriors here. I really like their mid-jungle duo to get ahead here and carry them in both games. Victory Five holds the second best early game rating in the league and should smash Rogue Warriors there.

RNG  ML vs. BiliBili parlayed with Victory 5 ML (-140) 1u

If I went full stats here, the model really likes BiliBili at this number against RNG, but I don’t think we can ignore what we just saw from RNG. They looked more like the serious team that their talent says they should be against Top. Xiaohu was particularly impressive– going punch-for-punch with Knight. If he plays like that again, I think FoFo’s in trouble. BLG, with Meteor, has thrived against teams with questionable early game junglers. Say what you want about XLB, but a lack of early game presence has never been his issue. This will be a very good test for RNG, if they want to make a real run in the playoffs they have to beat BLG here. 


JDG vs. OMG Over 2.5 Games (+165) 1u

OMG has looked revitalized with their substitutes in. Eric has shown flashes of real star potential and the team seems to have found an identity with him as the main carry. They’ve never been quite as bad as their record anyway with talented players in every lane. JDG, for their part, has dropped some games this split after going on an isane 2-0 run last split. Their 2-1 victories include teams like Rogue Warriors, Vici, and LGD, teams that I would put right in OMG’s range. At +165, there’s value here.

 SNG vs. Vici Over 2.5 Games (+100) 1u

Vici needs this series to stay in the playoff hunt. Suning has a chance to hold sole control of 4th. I think both teams come in extra motivated for this one. That kind of series usually leads to 3 games. I also think the talent matchups in this series are closer than a lot of people think. There’s not a single lane that stands out as a huge mismatch either way. Obviously, Vici’s jungle situation has been a question mark all season, but in spite of that they’re winning games. Most of all, looking at the schedule for both of these teams, you’ll see two teams that usually go 3 games against teams in the middle of the playoff picture. Suning has played 3 games serieses with WE, EDG, BLG, RNG, FPX and V5. Doesn’t it feel like Vici fits in perfectly in that list? This one’s going 3.


8/6 and 8/7

Damwon Gaming ML vs. Gen. G (-175) 2u, Damwon -1.5 (+170) 1u

Last week after losing a tightly contested series early in the split to DRX, Damwon came out and kicked their asses. It’s true that DRX tried out some “interesting” compositions in that series and perhaps did not show their best, but DWG truly dismantled them. We have a similar spot here with Damwon against Gen. G. Their first series of the split could have easily gone either way in a tightly contested 3-game series. I kind of think Damwon comes out and serves another revenge asskicking. Canyon and Showmaker are playing out of their minds right now. It really looks to me like no LCK jungler can keep up with Canyon right now. The stats have Damwon Gaming as the most dominant team in recent memory. That is probably a slight overrating, but this team is legitimately great. I just can’t see Gen.G keeping up with Damwon’s pace right now, despite being better in that regard this split.

T1 -1.5 Games vs. SeolHaeOne Prince, KT Rolster ML vs. HLE, and Afree ca ML vs Team Dynamics parlay (+105) 1u

SeolHaeOne Prince is terrible, like Victory 5 last split kind of terrible. They have legitimately only looked competitive 2 or 3 times this split. T1 is rounding back into form after the Faker benching and just always take care of business against teams like SHP. I honestly don’t hate a play on the T1 -1.5 at -345.

Hanwa is also terrible. They’ve only really looked competitive 2 or 3 times this split. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. KT is a little underrated after starting off the season a little funky. Even so, they have not even really come close to losing a game to a team like HLE. They need this game to stay alive and easily take care of business.

After a hot start, teams have started to catch on to Team Dynamics with time to scout them. Their initial ability to play aggressive, early-game focused LoL caught a few teams off guard, but their talent deficit has slowly become clearer as the split has gone on. I think that’s where they’re in real trouble here. I would take pretty much every player on Afreeca over their counterpart on Dynamics. The talent gap will be too much for TD to overcome in this one.

8/2 LCS Betting Breakdown

Brutal stuff yesterday. I believed a little too strongly in the improvement of BiliBili and got beat up by another upset-filled day in LEC. There is still lots of season left and playoffs are typically my most profitable time, so I’m looking forward to getting back into the green there. 


Golden Guardians -5.5 Kills vs. CLG (-115) 1u

I don’t want to overreact too much to one game, but that was impressive stuff from Golden Guardians yesterday. They didn’t just win by cheesing C9, but legitimately outplayed them in every stage of the game. It was the kind of performance you would expect from a team with legitimate Worlds aspirations. They still need to show they can close a game out easily. There’s no better team to do that against CLG, who have completely fallen apart. The jungle difference in this game alone is enough to like Golden Guardians. Closer is a legitimate MVP candidate and Wiggily is probably the worst jungler in the league. There’s also a certain swagger about this team that makes me believe they are likely to get a nice boost from yesterday’s win. I think Golden Guardians win this one easily.

Cloud9 vs. TSM Under 22.5 Kills (-115) 1u

It’s difficult to say what version of these teams is going to show up today. Cloud 9 after being a bastion of stability in the LCS have started to lay a few eggs, TSM is, well, TSM. They are endlessly inconsistent and have simultaneously looked like the best team in the league and the worst in the same game this season. Here’s one thing that’s consistent about these teams: their wins are blowouts and rarely go over 22 kills. Both teams average around 21 kills in wins, despite having some huge outliers in those numbers. Whoever defines the tempo of this game, whether it be the long, drawn-out, low kill style of TSM or the fast, early kills, end the game in 20 style of Cloud9, I like this one to go under.

100 Thieves ML vs. Immortals (-165) 2u

I didn’t look at it before 100 Thieves’ game with Flyquest, but I would guess that this number was closer to -200. To me, that’s a more accurate reflection of where these teams are at. Immortals just doesn’t really do anything. They won yesterday because Dignitas completely handed them the game and Xmithie had more experience in late game situations than anyone else on the rift. I don’t expect this one to get to those stages. 100 Thieves with Contractz has been one of the better Early Game teams in the league. Immortals is awful in that stage of the game with a rating of 29.5. That is the lowest Early Game Rating in professional LoL at oracleselixir.com. 100 Thieves’ collection of talent is also just a full mismatch for Immortals. They need this one to make the playoffs, give me 100T.

Flyquest ML vs. Evil Geniuses (-140) 2u

I think we’re going to see a full Evil Geniuses collapse here. There’s no stats kept on team chemistry, but the film on this team says they hate each other. There are so many times in game where you can tell they have differing opinions about what they should do. Bang, in particular, will just do whatever he thinks his best even if it means his team loses a teamfight. The number of times he’s been late to a drake fight because he’s clearing one last wave on the bot lane this season is alarming. Flyquest is the worst team you can be against in these situations. They are a solid, steady team that takes everything that you give them and is never late to an objective. I’m done going against FLY, which means you should probably immediately sell on them.

Parlay: GGS, FLY, 100T ML Parlay (+285) 1u

8/1 LoL Betting Breakdown

7/31 Recap:

Not a great day mostly because LAFC and SK forgot how to play their respective games, but sometimes that’s how it goes. I’ve got a lot I like for tomorrow, so let’s get them there.


LNG +1.5 Games vs. Rogue Warriors (-170) 1u, LNG ML (+180) 0.5u

Let’s keep this short: there is no way RW should be -260 against anyone. These teams have near identical stats in every metric that matters. Rogue Warriors current form is definitely better, but not -260 better. I wanted to go bigger here, but LNG is also unbelievably bad.  

BLG +1.5 Games vs. EDG (-245) 2u, BLG ML (+120) 1u

BiliBili is 4-4 with Meteor in the lineup and have had to play IG, JDG, and Suning in that stretch. The only team that they’ve lost to in the same tier as EDG is Team WE. That was a closely contested 2-1 series. I would expect this one to go the same way. EDG will also be without Aodi who has been a bit of a rock for them this split.  There’s no clear fave in this series, so the plus money is really nice. 

OMG +1.5 Games vs. Invictus Gaming (+135) 1u

This is a classic IG screw around spot. They are coming off a massive 2-0 against Top and lots of folks are talking about them as the possible best team in the world, Theshy and co. almost always drop a game in this spot. OMG is not quite as bad as their record indicates. They are fully capable of taking games when their opponents give it to them. I have a feeling IG will give them one here.



Rogue -5.5 kills vs. SK (-115) 1u, Under 23.5 Kills (-125) 1u

I’m done betting against Rogue. This team treats every game like it’s a Worlds final. They do everything they are good at every single game. I trust them to get small advantages in every single lane against SK. They are choking teams out like EU Team Liquid. SK needs teams to get a little wild like Mad did last week to upset. Rogue doesn’t do that. I like a Rogue stomp here and as my new saying goes “stomps cover and go under”.  

Misfits vs. XL Over 23.5 (-105) 1u

When I look at a matchup and can make a solid argument for both teams winning, I like to hit the over. I expect a pretty back and forth matchup here and both teams have been going over with teams near them in the standings. Misfits, in particular, has been playing long high-kill games lately and I don’t expect that to change here.

Mad Lions -6.5 kills (-115) vs. Vitality 2u

The books have overrated Vitality this week. They have won quite a few games this split that they had no business winning and still sit at the bottom of the standings in Early Game Rating and Gold Spent Differential. Mad Lions are the best team in Europe right now. The best teams in Europe almost always win by 10 or more kills historically. I think this spread should be closer to -9.5.

G2 vs. FNC Over 26.5 (-115) 1u

I am counting on both these teams to be up for this game. Neither has been up for every game this split and Fnatic in particular look like they have real problems to solve before playoffs, but gun-to-my-head I still trust both of these teams to be top 3 in the LEC at the end of Summer. I think we see FNC go to something more traditional in this one and see a close game, but even if we don’t I still like the over. G2 takes every Fnatic game personally. They try to kill and embarrass them at every turn. If they run over this game, we could still see it go something like 22-7.


100T +5.5 (-115) vs. Flyquest 1u, Over 21.5 (-115) 1u

100 Thieves is better than their record indicates. They hold a positive Gold Spent Differential despite being 5-9. That is nearly unheard of. They are also much better since adding their subs, Poome and Contractz. I think some positive regression is coming for this team and I like them to win here, but even if they lose they could cover. This team rarely gets totally blown out. Both teams are already high average total teams for the LCS and I expect a close one, so I love the over here. 

TL vs. CLG Under 22.5 (-115) 2u

Team Liquid gets first blood, TL gets first drake,  and TL has a 3k gold lead at a 1-0 kill score seems like the script for every Team Liquid game against bad teams this split. In their games against the bottom 4 in the LCS, they average a 21 kill total. I expect this game to go a lot like their game with Dignitas today where they had a perfect game going until the very end. CLG is falling apart and I don’t see them putting up much of a kill fight here.  

7/31 LoL Betting Breakdown

Before I get too far into the specifics of my LoL betting breakdown, I wanted to say thanks to everyone who reads this or follows my twitter and throws likes or retweets on it. It really means the world to me to share my passion even with just a few people and I appreciate it a lot. Writing, handicapping, and stats tracking on soccer and LoL has become something I’ve started to take more seriously and having people to share ideas with and encourage has been awesome.

On that note, I hope that you’ll check me and everybody out over at linemovement.com. I’m currently working on a series of introductory articles to each of the LoL leagues and have the LCS and LCK published. They have collected a bunch of really sharp people from a variety of sports and it’s one hundred percent free.

On my own content end, I’m going to commit to a new schedule for myself because the bets that I write on are significantly more profitable than the ones I just throw up on twitter. So, going forward, my goal is to write on the weekday slate of LPL/LCK on Sunday or Monday and then do daily articles about all the leagues on the weekends. Then, I think I’m going to start doing a weekly Twitch stream on Thursday evenings where I play TFT and talk through LoL or soccer bets with anyone who decides to show up. I don’t claim to be the sharpest person (it is always my goal to be +EV) you could talk to, but rather  someone to share ideas, tilt or laugh with. More to come on that.

With all that housekeeping out of the way, let’s get into the games.

LPL/LCK : Full Pass

The lines looked really sharp here on a chalky slate. Sometimes the best way to approach betting is to not bet.


SK Gaming ML vs. Misfits (-125) 2u, SK -4.5 kills (+105) 1u

This bet really comes down to one thing: I think SK is legit and Misfits suck. In the LEC futures article, I dubbed Misfits the “no ceiling, no floor” team of the LEC. It feels like they’re pretty close to their floor. Febiven is no longer an elite player, Razork has come up tails on his coinflip style way too often this split, and DanDan has just never been good. SK is maybe evn better than their record indicates. They are third in the league on Gold Spent Differential and 4th in Early Game Rating. This is a solid playoff team. Playoff teams have been winning and covering against Misfits.

Excel Esports ML vs. FC Schalke 04 (-160) 2u

Excel should be at least -200 here. Schalke looked improved last week, but got on a lot of comfort champions and played against teams that did not take them seriously. Excel needs to win this game to make the playoffs. Outside of motivation, I just think Excel is a significantly better team. Their bot lane has been one of the best in the league this split and they’re matched up against arguably the worst. Excel has a positive GSPD, the third best Early Game Rating, and the third best Herald percentage. That reads like a playoff team. Playoff teams beat Schalke.

Mad Lions -5.5 Kills vs. Origen (-115) 1u

If you like Mad Lions to win this game, you should take them against the kill spread. They have an Average Margin of Victory of over 11 kills and only need to win by 6 here. Origen is one of the lower AMOD teams, but have historically struggled with teams like MAD and been blown out by them plenty of times. I wouldn’t hate a play on the under here too as I expect MAD to get ahead early and Origen to slowly concede.

G2 Esports -5.5 Kills (-125) 1u, Vitality vs. G2 Under 26.5 Kills (-115) 1u

G2 has to look like G2 again at some point this season right? This team feels a lot like the 2018-2019 Golden State Warriors to me in that they almost seem bored with winning. They are clearly not approaching regular season games with the level of preparation and focus required for winning in the LEC. They have had multiple drafts that don’t make any sense, they’re playing champions no one else likes, and have played downright disrespectfully at times, but I still can’t shake the feeling that they’re still one of the best teams in the world. They can not go into playoffs against Mad Lions and Rogue in this form. They have to get right at some point, why not here against what I think is still a pretty bad Vitality team. We’re going with an old school G2 stomp narrative here. Stomps cover and go under.

Just going to watch the Fnatic-Rogue match and try and learn more about these two teams as I have no feel for how this game will go.


Liquid vs. Dignitas Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u

Liquid and unders name a more iconic duo. They have gone under in 10 of their 14 games. Their low-kill, scaling, late-game teamfighting style makes them the perfect under machine, especially in games against bad teams. Liquid can turn 2 kills into a 4k gold lead in the blink of an eye. I like Liquid to do what they always do against the worst teams in the league here: avoid dying early, pick up a kill at an early objective, and snowball out of control through solid map play with only a few kills. Take the under machine.

TSM -4.5 Kills vs. Evil Geniuses (-105) 1u   

Who are Evil Geniuses? I don’t think anyone really knows yet. This is a team so inconsistent and seemingly fragile that I have to bet TSM again. Bjergsen has owned Goldenglue throughout their careers. Huni and Broken Blade may just each kill each other 5 times in lane. Bang and Zeyzal regularly play as if they hate each other while Doublelift and Treatz remain in the honeymoon stage. I think EG is about to blow up in a bad way. There have been hints at a toxic team environment for a long time with this team and those teams tend to fall apart late in seasons. The stats are actually pretty kind to EG, but this is more of a gut feeling bet. 

7/19 LoL betting breakdown

I wish everyday could be like today, but I would probably be retired if that were the case. We’re halfway through the split with a bigger sample size of roster moves and current form. I like how some of the statistical analysis is shaping up. Will I have big losing days again? Of course, but I’ve felt a lot better about the process over the last couple of weeks and felt like even when I lost, it wasn’t because of anything dumb on my end. Not something I’ve always been able to say. On to the bets:


Top Esports -1.5 vs. Vici (-175) 1u

I would be a lot more cautious here if Top wasn’t coming off their first loss. Vici is an above average LPL team since getting their stuff together mid-split. I like them on plus money to take a game against all the other top teams, but not here. Top when they are one hundred percent engaged are near unbeatable. They have embarrassed better teams than Vici. Their astronomical 1.64 K:D ratio tells you this team rarely messes around. With the V5 loss fresh in their mind, they won’t be messing around here. Poor Vici is about to run into a buzzsaw.

JDG ML vs. Fun Plus Phoenix (-230) 2u, JDG -1.5 (+135) 1u

I think FPX is in real trouble. Their Top and Bot lanes do not look like elite level players anymore. This happens sometimes in LoL. When it’s over for certain players, it’s just over. I I have a suspicion it’s over for Lwx and Crisp. LokeN and Lvmao are the worst possible bot lane you could be against when you’re having struggles. LokeN is averaging a +246 GD@15 over his opponents while LWX is giving up a -42. With a few more carry options in the jungle available again, Kanavi could take off like he did the second half of last split as well. I think JDG is still the best or second best team in the world. They should beat FPX.


Team Dynamics +1.5 Games vs. DRX (+135) 1u, Team Dynamics ML (+450) 0.5u

DRX is a wild team. Most of the time they fall on the chaotic good side of things, but occasionally they like to let their chaotic bad show and punt games. If they punt against Dynamics, Dynamics is good enough to catch it. Dynamics is actually exactly the kind of team you want to take a shot on against the IG, DRX, and G2s of the world. They play solid, standard, kind of boring LoL. Sometimes the chaotic teams are driven to madness by them. Silly narratives aside, the statistics say this number is way too big as well.


TL/C9/Napoli ML Parlay (+120) 1u

Team Liquid has a chance to go first for a moment here. 100 Thieves have won their games by punishing teams who got out of line in the early game. Liquid doesn’t do that. 100T is also just an autofade for me against teams with elite mid laners, Liquid fits that bill. 

I love C9 off of 2 losses. I just don’t see a world where this team loses three in a row. They are the most dominant team in any region across pretty much all the numbers. They tried some goofy stuff in their last two. I expect them to get back to basics here and stomp.

When I put this parlay together it was at about -200 and I could not justify it for a parlay. So we’ll take Napoli in soccer to get us to plus money. Napoli is a solid home team in great form. They should beat Udinese with relative ease.

 C9-FLY Under 24.5 Kills (-115) 1u

I like C9 to take care of business pretty quick here and that means going under. Flyquest were basically gifted the game by TSM in 5 minutes today, but took forever to close it out. It wasn’t a confidence-inspiring performance to me. Santorin has historically struggled against early game monsters like Blaber. I see this one ending something like 14-2.

GGS vs. Dignitas Over 20.5 kills (-115) 1u 

This one is the complete opposite of the last one. This is too close to call. They are basically the same team in my eyes now with Dignitas’ new rosters. They have a similar strength in their mid-jungle duos and early games. I expect both of them to get bloody early and often. I think this number is way too low. Take the over.