Before I get too far into the specifics of my LoL betting breakdown, I wanted to say thanks to everyone who reads this or follows my twitter and throws likes or retweets on it. It really means the world to me to share my passion even with just a few people and I appreciate it a lot. Writing, handicapping, and stats tracking on soccer and LoL has become something I’ve started to take more seriously and having people to share ideas with and encourage has been awesome.
On that note, I hope that you’ll check me and everybody out over at linemovement.com. I’m currently working on a series of introductory articles to each of the LoL leagues and have the LCS and LCK published. They have collected a bunch of really sharp people from a variety of sports and it’s one hundred percent free.
On my own content end, I’m going to commit to a new schedule for myself because the bets that I write on are significantly more profitable than the ones I just throw up on twitter. So, going forward, my goal is to write on the weekday slate of LPL/LCK on Sunday or Monday and then do daily articles about all the leagues on the weekends. Then, I think I’m going to start doing a weekly Twitch stream on Thursday evenings where I play TFT and talk through LoL or soccer bets with anyone who decides to show up. I don’t claim to be the sharpest person (it is always my goal to be +EV) you could talk to, but rather someone to share ideas, tilt or laugh with. More to come on that.
With all that housekeeping out of the way, let’s get into the games.
LPL/LCK : Full Pass
The lines looked really sharp here on a chalky slate. Sometimes the best way to approach betting is to not bet.
SK Gaming ML vs. Misfits (-125) 2u, SK -4.5 kills (+105) 1u
This bet really comes down to one thing: I think SK is legit and Misfits suck. In the LEC futures article, I dubbed Misfits the “no ceiling, no floor” team of the LEC. It feels like they’re pretty close to their floor. Febiven is no longer an elite player, Razork has come up tails on his coinflip style way too often this split, and DanDan has just never been good. SK is maybe evn better than their record indicates. They are third in the league on Gold Spent Differential and 4th in Early Game Rating. This is a solid playoff team. Playoff teams have been winning and covering against Misfits.
Excel Esports ML vs. FC Schalke 04 (-160) 2u
Excel should be at least -200 here. Schalke looked improved last week, but got on a lot of comfort champions and played against teams that did not take them seriously. Excel needs to win this game to make the playoffs. Outside of motivation, I just think Excel is a significantly better team. Their bot lane has been one of the best in the league this split and they’re matched up against arguably the worst. Excel has a positive GSPD, the third best Early Game Rating, and the third best Herald percentage. That reads like a playoff team. Playoff teams beat Schalke.
Mad Lions -5.5 Kills vs. Origen (-115) 1u
If you like Mad Lions to win this game, you should take them against the kill spread. They have an Average Margin of Victory of over 11 kills and only need to win by 6 here. Origen is one of the lower AMOD teams, but have historically struggled with teams like MAD and been blown out by them plenty of times. I wouldn’t hate a play on the under here too as I expect MAD to get ahead early and Origen to slowly concede.
G2 Esports -5.5 Kills (-125) 1u, Vitality vs. G2 Under 26.5 Kills (-115) 1u
G2 has to look like G2 again at some point this season right? This team feels a lot like the 2018-2019 Golden State Warriors to me in that they almost seem bored with winning. They are clearly not approaching regular season games with the level of preparation and focus required for winning in the LEC. They have had multiple drafts that don’t make any sense, they’re playing champions no one else likes, and have played downright disrespectfully at times, but I still can’t shake the feeling that they’re still one of the best teams in the world. They can not go into playoffs against Mad Lions and Rogue in this form. They have to get right at some point, why not here against what I think is still a pretty bad Vitality team. We’re going with an old school G2 stomp narrative here. Stomps cover and go under.
Just going to watch the Fnatic-Rogue match and try and learn more about these two teams as I have no feel for how this game will go.
Liquid vs. Dignitas Under 20.5 Kills (-115) 1u
Liquid and unders name a more iconic duo. They have gone under in 10 of their 14 games. Their low-kill, scaling, late-game teamfighting style makes them the perfect under machine, especially in games against bad teams. Liquid can turn 2 kills into a 4k gold lead in the blink of an eye. I like Liquid to do what they always do against the worst teams in the league here: avoid dying early, pick up a kill at an early objective, and snowball out of control through solid map play with only a few kills. Take the under machine.
TSM -4.5 Kills vs. Evil Geniuses (-105) 1u
Who are Evil Geniuses? I don’t think anyone really knows yet. This is a team so inconsistent and seemingly fragile that I have to bet TSM again. Bjergsen has owned Goldenglue throughout their careers. Huni and Broken Blade may just each kill each other 5 times in lane. Bang and Zeyzal regularly play as if they hate each other while Doublelift and Treatz remain in the honeymoon stage. I think EG is about to blow up in a bad way. There have been hints at a toxic team environment for a long time with this team and those teams tend to fall apart late in seasons. The stats are actually pretty kind to EG, but this is more of a gut feeling bet.