6/20/2020: 11-16 for -6.75u
When you bet a lot of volume, there’s always going to be runs like this. It’s important to reflect, remain level-headed and trust in the data. The data says I suck at kill spreads. I’m going to be trying to rebuild my process for kill spreads over next week and see if I can sharpen up there. If not, going to try and avoid those going forward without huge implied edges. Outside of kill spreads, I think we’ve done too much guesswork with teams who have new players (Stares in TSM). Those are two areas of improvement for next week!
Sheffield United 0, +0.5 goals vs. Newcastle (+105) 1u
For anyone new to soccer betting, this is called an “asian goal line” or “quarter ball line”. Your bet is split evenly between a +0 and +0.5. Essentially if Sheffield, draw or even better win, we get some type of profit. Newcastle have been awful this season, even at home. They have the worst expected goal differential in the league for a home team, but have managed to escape a lot of those games with favorable results. It has to give at some point. Sheffield have only conceded 25 goals on the season under the leadership of Chris Basham. Newcastle just don’t have the kind of players to break down a defense as stout as Sheffield’s. At worst, I expect this to end 0-0 and we win half our bet.
Chelsea team total Over 2 Goals vs. Aston Villa (-115) 1u
Despite having only a +7 differential, Chelsea have maintained a near +20 expected goal differential throughout the season. They have been wasteful at times and unlucky at other times. I would look for them to explode against Aston Villa who have the second worst expected goals against at home in the EPL. With a bigger emphasis on depth and substitutions from the COVID break, there is no comparing these teams. Chelsea could really run away with this one after the 60th minute.
Everton +1 Goal vs. Liverpool (-115) 1u
Everton have been pretty unlucky this season. You could write that sentence about every season in the history of Everton Football Club and I think it would be true. That does not make it less true this season. Despite being 12th in the table, they sit at 7th in expected goal differential and actually sport a +4.5 there instead of their actual -9. Something’s gotta give here again. They also should be at tip top motivation in a derby, with revenge of a 5-2 loss, and a chance to make Liverpool the tiniest bit nervous about their title chances. If Everton were to win or draw here, it would be the highlight of their season and what they would build on going into next year. Gimmie the toffee dogs.
Rogue Warriors vs. Suning Gaming Over 2.5 Games (+105) 1u
This series screams three games. Both teams played more three game serieses than not last season with 10 of Suning’s 16 serieses going the distance. Rogue have not won a game yet this season, but have had a tough schedule of IG and Top. They also should have taken a game off of both of those teams. Suning is nowhere near that quality. I think a play on Rogue as the underdog is also defensible, but plus money on the most likely outcome for these two teams is where the value is at.
EDG ML vs. IG (+130) 2u, EDG 2-0 (+355) 1u
I think EDG has looked really good. Not ho-hum, win against bad teams, get swept by good teams kind of good. Rather, a legitimate top 4 team in the LPL kind of good. Aodi has shown serious carry promise amongst over-aggression. Hope is a star right now. Scout is still his solid self. I’m a believer. I am not an IG believer. They are on a two game win streak against bad teams and should have lost games in both of those serieses. I don’t buy that they’re learning the meta now like Ning said in a recent interview. They looked like the same old disrespectful IG against RW and Suning. Those two teams just don’t have the solid macro play to punish them. EDG do. Hope has to be relishing the chance to play against Puff and Southwind. Bot Diff!
My odds and the implied odds of the books have been very close so far this split in LCK. I’m hoping that changes soon, but until then, taking passes.
Liquid ML vs. EG (-115) 2u
Maybe the only team I had the right read on in LCS was Liquid. They have looked fantastic. They are hovering around +10% in GSPD, a very impressive mark for even the best teams in LoL. EG is also a very solid team coming off an embarrassing loss. I don’t expect this to be a total wash. However, Svenskeren looked pretty heavily outclassed by Blaber today. Broxah has been that kind of talent so far this split after gaining comfort in LCS. Jungle feels extremely important right now. If you asked me to pick between the two junglers of these teams, it wouldn’t even be close.
FLY-C9-100T ML Parlay (+112) 1u, 100T -5.5 Kills (-115) 2u
Definitely tempting fate with a favorites parlay in LCS, but I really can not see any of these teams losing. Flyquest beat up on TSM today because TSM decided to beat themselves. You can one hundred percent count on Dignitas to beat themselves. Cloud9 doesn’t lose in NA. 100T is not as easy money as the other two, but they have played a brutal schedule so far and have looked worse than they actually are. Immortals have played some of the worst teams in the league so far and can not find a win. Ssumday will refuse to lose to this team that I believe has a real chance to go 0-18.