6/19 Recap: 6-8 for -3.15u
Another solid day in LPL undone by upsets in LEC and LCS. Golden Guardians looked nothing like the team we saw last week and Mad Lions are much better than I expected them to be at this stage. I think I’m going to further scale back on those leagues until I can get a better read there. Some of the LPL teams are starting to come into clearer view, however, and I like our chances there going forward.
Dominus Esports +1.5 Games (-170) 2u vs. OMG, Dominus ML (+180) 1u
Both of these teams are terrible. Which is why +180 on either team is a must-bet. Would I give OMG something like a 55-45 edge? Sure. But a 65-35? Get out of here. Neither of these teams have showed any consistent ideas about how they want to play the game so far this season and were two of the worst K:D teams in the league in Spring. There is no clear favorite here. Take the big plus money dog.
Top Esports -1.5 Games vs. LGD (-105) 1u
LGD is improved this split. They have won multiple games and series that I expected them to lose. They have also not faced anyone near Top’s quality yet. Top is playing like the best team in the league with an absolutely insane 2.11 K:D so far in Spring to follow up their Mid-Season Cup championship. They dropped a pretty silly game to OMG last time out. They strike me as the kind of team that will use that as motivation to improve on their performance, rather than an IG-style complacency. I have them 2-0ing this at around 60%.
I am not in love with either of the matchups in LCK tomorrow. I just don’t know enough about Team Dynamics to handicap their games at all and the T1 -1.5 games is priced really well. Sometimes profitable handicapping is knowing when you can’t win.
Rogue ML vs. G2 (+180) 1u
G2 is in a little funk. They did not play that well today despite the dominating score line against Schalke. There were multiple occasions where individuals were getting caught out, making little misplays, and even a couple communication issues crept in. They will be fine long term, but getting Rogue at essentially 2 to 1 here is really nice. Rogue have been the best team in the league in Summer. They currently sport a huge + 9.5% GSPD, the best tell for a team that is getting leads and using them efficiently. I think G2 could give up a lead to Rogue tomorrow with individual mistakes. If that happens, expect Rogue to close it out.
Word of caution: There is a decent chance that G2 did not take their previous games seriously and decide to assert dominance tomorrow. I think that’s more likely next week.
TSM vs. Flyquest (-140) 1u
If you want to beat yourself, Flyquest will let you. If you want to beat up on them, Flyquest will let you. I really can’t believe this team is the second best North America has to offer. They have stats that suggest they should be a middle of the table team at best. Last season, in a split they finished second, they had a negative Gold Spent Differential. That is unheard of. The regression has to come for this team. TSM looked to have figured a couple things out tonight with Spica on an aggressive jungle and Doublelift on a signature pick. If these teams are playing at their peak, they’re not even close.
TSM-TL ML Parlay (+140) 1u
CoreJJ and Liquid seem to have left whatever issues with Doublelift they had in the past and are headed back towards dominance. 3 of the 5 players on this team were a part of the most dominant team NA has ever seen. Broxah could be seen as an upgrade from that team. Tactical looks on his way to best NA ADC in the near future. Teams of their talent level rarely lose to teams of 100T’s talent level. 100T is a team formed entirely around the top lane mega carry. There’s not a lot of those left on patch 10.12. It could be a rough season for them.
Evil Geniuses ML vs. Cloud9 (+215) 1u
This number is a little disrespectful to EG. They were one of the three teams in NA to take a game off of Cloud 9 spring split and have been utterly dominant to start the split. Their strength of schedule has been questionable, but you can only beat who is in front of you. EG has done plenty of that. They sport an unheard of +20% GSPD through three games that tops even Cloud 9. Stylistically, these teams play quite similarly and either way this should make for a great match.