6/12 LEC and LCS Picks

With Best of 1s, the LEC and LCS have been the toughest leagues to profit on for me in the past. Bettors have to really pick their spots in these two leagues and vary their approaches. In LPL and LCK, I’m profitable on largely moneyline bets alone. In LEC and LCS, there might be two moneyline spots a week I like. So, we’re going to try to apply a few principles we’ve seen develop in the first two weeks of LPL to LEC and LCS.

Working Principles from LPL:

1. The best teams may look a little fatigued.

Obviously, this could have been entirely because of the Mid Season Cup, which does not apply to LEC and LCS. However, JDG, FPX, and IG have all looked like shadows of themselves so far. The other teams look like they’ve had more time to practice this patch, fix issues, and make strategy plans for the season.

2. Good teams with bad coaching or drafting are improved.

I’m obviously talking about RNG here. Since returning from the break, RNG look like the top team they were expected to be. Instead of drafting themselves into weird boxes, they have played solid, easily executable meta compositions. If TSM can follow RNG’s lead, there might be a couple of opportunities on them this weekend.

3. Full rebuilds could surprise.

No team in LEC or LCS took the build from scratch approach of Victory 5, but some made significant changes. Victory 5 have looked totally refreshed with their new lineup and have really jumped out on two teams so far. I could see that happening with Excel or CLG in the Western leagues.

4. Be ready to adjust, but use your working knowledge from the end of Spring Split

If a team was an over machine in the spring, they’ll most likely be an over machine in the summer. If a team usually covered kill spreads in wins in the spring, they’ll probably cover kill spreads in the summer. Be ready to let go of some of these quick.

With those principles in mind, on to today’s picks:

G2 vs. MAD Lions OVER 29.5 Kills (-115) 1u

G2 and MAD were two of the most reliable over teams in the Spring Split. 8 of their 9 matchups went over the 29.5 total posted. There is no way in the first game of the split these two teams just sit back on one another. I honestly think I would have taken this all the way up to 32.5.

FC Schalke 04 ML vs. Team Vitality (-170) 1u

A moneyline spot in the LEC! Schalke will be eager to get off to a good start and cement themselves as a playoff team. Vitality should be at the bottom of the table again. Vitality ended their split with a GSPD of -7.4% one of the worst marks you will see in any league. Schalke were a positive GSPD team in their run at the end of the split. Feels like if this game took place next week it would be more like -250. 

Origen -8.5 Kills vs. SK Gaming (-125) 1u

Origen kill bad teams. They have an AMOV (average margin of victory) of a little over 10 kills. That would be even better if you eliminated their wins against playoff teams. SK is a bad team. As long as we see the same, consistent Origen they’re covering this number,

XL-Rogue and FNC-Misfits are both passes for me. Could see an argument for the ML on both dogs though.

100T ML vs. EG (+120) 0.5u

Definitely my lowest confidence spot of the day, but I just keep staring at the Kumo vs. SSumday matchup and asking how do 100T lose this game? If Jizuke bodies Ryoma, that could lose, but the plus money on a stomp by Ssumday is worth a small shot. 100 Thieves also have the kind of veteran leadership that usually leads to stability from patch to patch. I like EG over the course of the season, but in a one-off on day 1? Give me 100T.

Cloud9 -7.5 Kills vs. Flyquest (-130) 2u 

Cloud 9 covered this number in 11 of their 17 wins in the spring split. That includes the later games in the season against TL and CLG where they were champion testing. On the other side, Flyquest were the highest death total team to make the playoffs, not named 100T. They lost by 8 or more kills in 7 of their 8 regular season losses. If you like Cloud9 at a near certainty to win this game (and I do), you have to like them on the kill spread too.  

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