When a LoL bettor sits down to outline their strategy for betting futures in the LEC, they should ask themselves two key questions: “What are the odds for G2 to win?” and “What are the odds for FNATIC to make the final?” If you can find anything close to plus money on either of those two situations, go ahead and put all your savings on that and call it a day. Unfortunately, I haven’t found that anywhere, so we’re gonna have to squeeze out some value on the tough numbers they gave us.
Here are the betting tiers for the LEC Summer Split 2020 listed with their odds to make the final followed by their odds to win the final :
The “might as well set your money on fire” tier: SK Gaming (+3300, +10000), Team Vitality (+1800, +4000), Excel Esports (+1800, +4000), Schalke 04 (+1200, +2400)
- SK Gaming
With a storied history of domestic success, SK Gaming are in a bit of a down period. This team can’t quite decide which way they want to go: into full rebuild with Jenax switching to top and Zazee coming in to man the midlane or try to find the magic again with veterans like Trick. That usually means a team is about to suck. Some of the younger players showed promise last season, but Trick has fallen all the way to “worst jungler in the league” status. It is very difficult to win in today’s League of Legends with that kind of Jungler.
- Team Vitality
Another team that made changes in the offseason, but not to the position essentially every LoL analyst, bettor, and dfs player wanted to see. Their support, Jactroll, has not shown himself to be of LEC quality. Hell, I think he would have struggled in EU Masters. I’m not going to pile on the guy too much more, but with such an obvious weakness, this team is going nowhere.
- Excel Esports
Excel did get rid of, arguably, their worst performing players in Mickey and Expect. It’s tough to say if they got immediate upgrades though in youngsters Kryze and Special. Special was an above average, but not standout, mid laner at the 2020 Spring EU Masters tournament. Preferably, you would want to sign a guy who pops off the screen at that level. I think this team has real potential into the future, but the future isn’t starting on Friday.
- Schalke 04
I debated putting this team a tier above here. I think S04 will make a legitimate push for the playoffs this split. They played like a playoff team in spring after giving up on veterans Forgiven and Gillius, and replacing them with budding stars, Innaxe and Lurox. Lurox, in particular, could make a leap this split. If he does, I think this team makes the playoffs, they just ain’t winning the whole thing.
The “first round exits” tier: Rogue (+800, +2000), MAD Lions (+600, +1600)
To be totally frank, +800 on Rogue to make the final is criminal. They are a perfect gatekeeping team. They rarely beat themselves. They have slightly above average players in every lane. They play a slow, methodical style that bad teams struggle with, but good teams can pick apart. Rogue will have stats all season long that make them look better than they are because they will destroy bad teams and just slowly concede to good teams. When they matchup with good teams in the playoffs, their season will be over.
- MAD Lions
MAD Lions played out of their damn minds on April 3rd and shocked the LoL world and emptied the pockets of LoL bettors everywhere by beating G2. They, then, went on to get swept by FNATIC and beat convincingly in the rematch with G2. I think that’s a little more telling of where MAD is at right now. They could pop off on a random Friday because of the aggressive nature of their laners and shock great teams, but most of the time they still lack the consistent execution to be a great team. They ended last season with a Gold Spent Differential of 0.6% not exactly a mark of a team about to jump into European elite. A lot of folks have this team moving into the top 3, I’m saying pump the breaks.
The “3-0’d by Fanatic or G2” tier: Origen (+350, +1000)
Origen is the Baron-buffed version of Rogue. Instead of being the playoff team gatekeepers, they are the elite team gatekeepers. They have near-elite players in every lane. They make minimal mistakes. They play a slow, methodical style that is hard to beat for bad teams, easy to exploit for the elite. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Origen will once again find themselves with 11-14 regular season wins and 0-2 playoff wins against G2 and FNATIC in the playoffs.
The “No ceiling, no floor” tier: Misfits (+800, +2000)
If you told me that Misfits will win the 2020 Summer split, I would be surprised, not shocked. If you told me that Misfits will get 8th in the 2020 Summer split, I would be surprised, not shocked. The range of outcomes for this team is wider than what I can see for any other team. They have players who were once part of the European Elite in Kobbe and Febiven. They have young, hungry, improving talent in Razork. They have young, hungry, and unpredictable talent in Dan Dan. If they put it all together, they could be elite. That will ultimately all be up to mid laner, Febiven. Febiven was a world-class mid laner from 2015-2016. I swear I saw it with my own eyes! Since then, he has failed to recapture that form and truly carry a team like he did with the FNATICs of old. We saw little hints at ol’ Febi in Spring before they started drafting him things like Ornn mid. If Febiven is great again, Misfits might just shock the league.
Gambling Position: 0.5u on Misfits to reach the final (+800), 0.25u on Misfits to win it all (+2000)
The “Seriously, we’re gonna beat them this time!” tier: FNATIC (-140, +400)
FNATIC are a top 5 team in the world. I truly believe this. They are lane for lane one of the most talented rosters in the world. They just, unfortunately, play in the same league as G2. Stats, lanes, champ pools, preparation, everything seems even between FNC and G2, but every time they match up in the playoffs, G2 comes out on top. Last split’s finals were a bit of a fluke in my opinion. G2 were just significantly more prepared on the day. They had an answer for everything FNATIC were bringing. I don’t see that happening again. FNATIC will be better than every other team in the LEC save for G2. I think it might just be their split against G2 too.
Gambling Position: 3u on FNC to reach the final (-140), 2u on FNC to win it all (+400)
The Favorites tier: G2 (-800, -200)
- G2 Esports
Full disclosure: G2 is my favorite team to watch in the world. They are so flexible, so aggressive, so unpredictable, so everything that makes LoL a great game to watch. G2 decided to switch back to the lane assignments that provided them with all of their success in 2019. Perkz is back to the bot lane (just in time for adc buffs!) and Caps is back to the mid lane. They are the only team in the world with this kind of flexibility. When they are on their game, they are unbeatable. I just can’t lay the kind of numbers the books are asking. G2 has been known to limit-test and, at times, outright troll the regular season. We’re counting on them to do that again this season and enter the playoffs at better numbers than we’re getting here to hedge our other positions with.
Gambling Position: TBD